US independent from its own Copa by 4th July

As the United States becomes the first host nation to be eliminated in the Group Stage of the Copa América, I look at the tournament's winners and losers so far ahead of quarter-finals

Dominant performances and controversial decisions have been the story of the 2024 Copa América so far, as the Group Stage has now concluded.

Controversy has been at the door of the host nation, the United States, who have already been eliminated from the tournament, which is not just proving to be a downside for them, but is having a ripple effect towards football’s powers that be.

With the Quarter-finals beginning tonight, let’s look at who have been the real winners and losers of the competition up to this point, and preview the next round.

But before we do, an honourable and not-so-humble mention to myself for correctly predicting seven of the eight quarter-finalists in my preview ;)

WINNERS

Venezuela

In my preview, I questioned whether Argentina still had the hunger and desire to contend for what would be a third consecutive tournament triumph. They responded with three Group A wins and have the current top scorer, Lautaro Martínez.

Meanwhile, Uruguay barely broke sweat to win three from three in Group C, scoring nine times to be the highest scorers in the Group Stage, three goals clear of their nearest rivals.

But success for Argentina and Uruguay, the joint-record champions is nothing new nor unexpected. However, that cannot be said for the other team to take maximum points in the groups.

Venezuela, in the form of the nation’s footballing life, took nine points in Group B and are now one win away from at least equalling their best ever Copa América result.

Beginning by coming from behind to beat Ecuador 2-1 in Santa Clara, they dug out a 1-0 win over Mexico, as Salomón Rondón extended his massive lead as the nation’s top scorer from the penalty spot. Having been frustrated in the first half, then ran out 3-0 winners over Jamaica - the whipping boys have become the whippers.

There was much excitement around José Pékerman’s appointment as manager in late 2021 - if anyone could be the man to finally take Venezuela to the World Cup in 2026, it was him. The decision to relieve him of his duties in March 2023 was, therefore, seen as giving up the best chance Venezuela would ever have.

But under Pékerman’s former assistant, Fernando Batista, Venezuela are continuing to realise their potential and have topped a group in the competition for the first time since 2007, when they were hosts.

A squad greater than the sum of its parts with a good mix of youth and experience, captained by record appearance maker Tomás Rincón and containing a sprinkling of top-level stardust in La Liga’s Yangel Herrera and Darwin Machís to name a couple, Venezuela has the right balance to equal or better their fourth-place finish from 2011.

With just one defeat in their last 10, they should have no fear when taking on Canada in the quarter-finals.

Colombia

It is starting to feel unfair to Argentina and Uruguay that I am again choosing to ignore them and instead label the only group winner to drop points as one of my “winners”! Colombia, very much back in the wilderness since the 2018 World Cup, quietly rebuilt themselves under Argentinian coach Néstor Lorenzo and have now hit 26 matches unbeaten since February 2022.

Doubts were raised when they drew three of their four World Cup qualifiers last autumn, and a 1-0 win over Spain and 5-1 over the United States were taken with a pinch of salt for only being friendlies.

But at the Copa, they have proven themselves to be the real deal, beating Paraguay and Costa Rica before responding to going a goal down to Brazil by getting the point which sealed first place. Goals have come from all areas of the pitch, including two for full back Daniel Muñoz, while James Rodríguez still wears the captain’s armband - a show of faith from Lorenzo in the talisman, whose future with Los Cafeteros was uncertain just two short years ago.

The suspended Jefferson Lerma will be a big miss for their quarter-final with Panama, but their form and quality should be plenty to see them through.

LOSERS

2026 FIFA World Cup

The 2024 Copa América was - among many things - meant to be a dress rehearsal for the 2026 World Cup, hosted in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

Half-empty stadiums, frequented mostly by the migrant populations while the average American is barely aware the tournament is taking place, has not exactly been music to the ears of FIFA, CONCACAF and the 2026 organisers.

But what is happening in the stands and around the country is only ever part of the story; what every tournament needs is a host nation to get people excited.

Judging by the Copa América, that is not what we are going to get in two years time.

After the Group Stage, only Canada are still standing with a win, a draw and a loss to their name from their Group A experience. Starting against Argentina was tough, but scoring only once against struggling Chile and Peru to limp into the quarter-finals has not set pulses racing.

But at least they have limped into the last eight, unlike Mexico, who backed-up their failure to reach the Round of 16 at the World Cup in Qatar by scoring only once in Group B, where they beat Jamaica before a loss to Venezuela and a draw with Ecuador. Stuck in a rut with only five wins in their last 15, Mexico need to somehow magic up a goal scorer if they can compete on home soil in 2026.

Win or lose in 2026, FIFA know the Mexican fans will create an unrivalled atmosphere, but that guarantee cannot be made for the United States, who are celebrating 4th July having already gained independence from the Copa América.

There were questions hanging over the team and, in particular, coach Gregg Berhalter coming into the tournament, though some nerves were settled with a 2-0 opening win over Bolivia.

From then on, things went from bad to worse. Timothy Weah’s clueless act got himself sent-off against Panama, before the 10-men were beaten 2-1. Up against it against Uruguay in the final match, the USA saw several decisions go against them in a feisty affair, none more controversial than VAR allowing Mathías Olivera’s winner to stand.

But that said, I saw very little from the US to suggest they deserved something from the match. In front of thousands of empty seats in Kansas City, the Uruguayan goal was barely threatened, particularly late in the game when the Stars and Stripes knew their chance of progression was escaping.

Ahead of CONCACAF’s first World Cup since 1994, they could barely have got a worse Group Stage from the three hosts. I highlighted the CONCACAF struggles as a potential talking point in my preview, and though two teams have progressed, I doubt the World Cup organisers will be celebrating Panama’s success at the USA’s expense.

Brazil

Brazil have made it through to the Quarter-finals and a national embarrassment has been avoided, but they are still making my “losers” category.

Ronaldinho rode back on comments saying this Brazil team was the “worst in years”, but I still said in my preview;

Brazil have surely left plenty of their heroes of yesteryear breaking into cold sweats with their performances of late

Well, that appeared to be the case for Ronaldo Nazario, who claimed mid-tournament that he can no longer watch football, instead spending his time following tennis.

Can you blame him, when Brazil have failed to win two games in a row in 2024, and while they have stayed unbeaten, they have added a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica and a 1-1 with Colombia to their draw with the USA in the build-up to the tournament.

A 4-1 win over pointless Paraguay meant they did progress from Group D, but their inconsistency is a real problem and with so much of their attacking experience left at home, I cannot see them contend with Uruguay in their Quarter-final.

PREDICTIONS

I will keep this very simple, I think the four group winners have been a cut above the rest of the competition and should all go through to the Semi-finals.

That would set up a Semi-final line-up of…

Argentina vs Venezuela
Colombia vs Uruguay

Do you agree with me? Who are your winners and losers of the Group Stage? Let me know in a comment below, and don’t forget to like this post and subscribe to The Full International!

Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who writes for Flashscore and World Soccer Magazine.