Six potential debutants at the 2026 World Cup - reviewing my predictions
Isn't hindsight just wonderful?
Two years ago — or two years and 10 days ago, to be precise — I wrote an article for The Sporting Blog where I named six teams I thought had the potential to debut at the next FIFA World Cup in 2026…
Two years and 10 days ago was, as that intro painfully points out, less than two months after Argentina had won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, while qualifying for USA/Mexico/Canada 2026 was still a few months from getting underway.
But that did not stop me from putting my reputation on the line, fuelled by the final few drops of World Cup fever keeping me going and excited by the fact that 48 teams will be at the big North American bash, adding to the potential for newbies.
So, two years on, how are my predictions shaping up? Do any of them stand any chance of breaking their World Cup duck and who — with a liberal dollop of hindsight — should I have picked? Let’s have a look.
Side notes: The Sporting Blog has been a great friend to many sport writers, especially those looking to get a foot in the door. Unfortunately, changes to search engine algorithms and other things I don’t understand have harmed its growth, so make sure to check it out and support it.
The link to the full 2023 article can be found at the bottom of this page.
1. Burkina Faso
I had very high hopes two years ago for one of African football’s great nearly men. Les Étalons of Burkina Faso were twice Afcon silver medallists in the previous decade and made the semi-finals in 2021.
Surely they were to benefit from CAF almost doubling their automatic qualifying places?
Well, so far, not really. Not only did their decent Afcon form desert them last year with a Round of 16 exit, but the Burkinabe are only third in the Group A standings, trailing Egypt by four points and one point shy of Guinea-Bissau, who occupy the possible second round place.
Throwing away a two-goal lead at home to Sierra Leone in their most recent qualifier was a real blow, having been beaten 2-1 away in Egypt a few days earlier.
With only four of 10 matches played, hope is certainly not lost and a win against whipping boys Djibouti and a positive result against Guinea-Bissau in March will have Brama Traoré’s men right back on track, especially if Bertrand Traoré and Dango Ouattara continue to contribute in front of goal.
It might be tough to catch Egypt, but a second round spot is not beyond them.
Chance of qualifying: 5/10
Hindsight pick: Sudan — top of Group B and two points clear, they are the best-positioned of all potential debutants in Africa. One slip up, though, and Senegal or DR Congo will be ready to pounce.
2. Mali
We are staying in West Africa for pick number two but I’m afraid the predictions are not always greener on the other side of the Mali-Burkina Faso border.
A 1-0 aggregate defeat to Tunisia in the final round of qualifying denied Mali a place in the 2022 World Cup and not only was getting in Africa’s final 10 again a real possibility, but this time it would likely secure a spot in a maiden World Cup.
Since I picked out Les Aigles two years ago, they have been Afcon quarter-finalists, losing only to hosts and eventual winners Ivory Coast.
But my optimism was already waning by that point, as a win over Chad in qualifying was followed up by a home draw with Central African Republic. Then, in June, a 94th-minute Jordan Ayew winner gave Ghana all three points in Bamako, before a goalless draw away to Madagascar.
They will resume qualification in March in fourth, four points behind Comoros and Ghana.
Again, however, all hope is not lost. The appointment of Belgian manager Tom Saintfiet in September heralded an upturn in form, as Mali went unbeaten in Afcon qualifying, topping their group and conceding just once in six matches.
They need to carry that form over to World Cup qualifying, where they will start off with a trip to Comoros — one of four away games in their final six matches.
Chance of qualifying: 4/10
Hindsight pick: Comoros — Comoros and Rwanda both top their respective groups on goal difference, but given the islanders are Mali’s direct rivals in Group I, they deserve the nomination.
3. Oman
We switch now from Africa to Asia but stick with teams who would have qualified in 2022 had as many places at the finals been on offer.
Oman reached the AFC Third Round last time out and their impressive rise up the rankings to 75th suggested to me in 2023 that they were an emerging force in Asian football.
They have reached the Third Round again — not such an impressive feat, given that 18 teams now make up this stage, compared to 12 four years ago, while their ascent up the rankings has stalled, as they have slipped to 80th.
That slip is partly down to a poor start in Group B, where Al-Ahmar have lost four of their six matches, including to their closest rivals for second place; Iraq (0-1) and Jordan (4-0).
With four matches left, closing the five-point gap to Iraq looks a tall order, especially as their 2025 begins with an away trip to South Korea.
Taking points from return fixtures with Kuwait and Palestine — the only teams they have beaten in the round so far — should be enough for a Fourth Round place. Six teams will fight for two places in the Fourth Round, with the next best two scrapping it out for the intercontinental play-off place.
With Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar possibly lying in wait in the Fourth Round, even getting through via the back door will be tough. But if top scorer in qualifying, Abdulrahman Al-Mushaifri, can keep chipping in, hope still remains.
Chance of qualifying: 3/10
Hindsight pick: There was one comment left on the 2023 article…
The only potential debutant occupying a top-two place at the moment. Well played, Mayer, well played.
4. Curaçao
Finally, some positive news!
Okay, it’s still very early days in CONCACAF qualifying, but Curaçao have started as they mean to go on with two wins from two in Group C of the Second Round, beating Barbados, 4-1, and Aruba, 0-2.
As teams only face other once at this stage, La Pantera Negra are already nearing a place in the Third Round.
That will be the real test for how far they have come — they will be the outsiders up against the likes of Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama as 12 teams fight for just three automatic places and two intercontinental play-off spots.
But, with Dick Advocaat as manager and a squad that boasts the Bacuna brothers, Eloy Room and Cuco Martina, they have every chance of being the first Caribbean side to qualify for 20 years.
Chance of qualifying: 6.5/10
No hindsight pick this time, but shout outs to Suriname, Nicaragua and Guatemala, who have all made perfect starts.
5. Venezuela
They say it’s the hope that kills you, which is especially true if you are willing Venezuela on to finally qualify for the World Cup.
Six automatic qualifiers and play-off place on offer, plus the appointment of José Pékerman as manager in 2021 providing an upturn in form, led many (including me) to believe that this would finally be Venezuela’s time.
However, only one month on from my predictions article, Pékerman and Venezuela parted company and Fernando Batista was brought in to replace him.
As it turned out, there was no reason to lose faith — Batista guided La Vinotinto to just one defeat in their opening six qualifiers, which included an away draw in Brazil and wins over Paraguay and Chile, setting themselves firmly inside the top six.
But in September, things began to unravel — a 4-0 loss in El Alto to Bolivia began a run of no wins in six in the final three international windows of 2024. They picked up points against Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil again, but that was not enough to stop them from slipping to eighth.
Three losses in succession on the road provides little hope of taking anything against Ecuador when qualifying resumes in March. They have drawn their last four at home, but they surely must take all three points when they welcome Peru in their second March fixture.
A drop in form for Bolivia and/or Paraguay may be all they need to get back in the race, but they already seem to be running out of steam.
Chance of qualifying: 3/10
No hindsight picks possible in CONMEBOL, but at least Suriname is in South America!
6. North Macedonia
Okay, I’ll level with you, I was not overly confident of any UEFA nation debuting in 2026, but just wanted to include one for the article.
At the time, we were 18 months on from North Macedonia’s maiden major tournament appearance at the delayed UEFA Euro 2020, and then they fell just short of a 2022 World Cup place, losing to Portugal in a play-off final, having just knocked Italy out.
Since then, they had an underwhelming UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, winning just two of eight matches, and put up an average showing in 2022/23 UEFA Nations League C.
I had pretty much written them off, when they went and finished top of their group in this season’s Nations League, winning five and drawing one to secure promotion to League B for the first time.
That isn’t enough to be considered World Cup contenders, of course, but it means Risovi have given themselves a great chance of securing a play-off place if they fail to finish in the top two in Group J.
16 teams will battle for just four World Cup places in the play-offs, and North Macedonia are guaranteed to be an unseeded team if they get in via the Nations League. A huge ask for Blagoja Milevski’s side, but given what they did to Italy, no one will want to face them.
Chance of qualifying: 2/10
Hindsight picks: Difficult to say when qualifying hasn’t begun and not all the groups have fully taken shape. Georgia and Albania impressed at the Euros and will be eyeing play-off places, while Kazakhstan will make North Macedonia’s group very competitive.
So, what do I know?
An average of 3.92/10! Not exactly my finest prediction work, but at least all six still have a chance of making it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup!
To read the original article in full, head to The Sporting Blog!
What do you think? Have my six still got a chance or are my hindsight picks the real ones to watch? Have I been too harsh on myself and my teams? Who have I left out? Let me know…
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Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who has written for World Soccer Magazine, MUNDIAL and Flashscore.