Five teams to watch as Euro 24 qualifying gets underway
The road to Germany gets underway this week and here are five teams catching my eye ahead of Matchdays 1 & 2
In a little over a year’s time, we will know which 23 teams will be heading to Germany next summer, as the play-off finals for Euro qualifying are set for 26th March 2024.
But first, we have a year of international breaks and far too many Nations League permutations to get through, beginning this week with the first two matchdays across the ten groups.
Twists and turns aplenty are likely to be in order over the next twelve months, but for now, I have picked out five teams - from big names to dark horses to outsiders - worth having a scan over, both for next week, and the qualification process as a whole.
Italy
I won’t win any hipster points by starting off with the reigning champions. Nonetheless, Italy have a lot to prove as they begin their title retention.
A year on from the humiliating home loss to North Macedonia in the World Cup play-offs, the Azzurri have thus far been rewarded for sticking with Roberto Mancini, who guided them to first place in their Nations League group ahead of Hungary, Germany and England.
A comprehensive 3-0 loss in Finalissima to Argentina and a 2-0 defeat to Austria in their most recent encounter showed they are still not quite the side that put together that almighty 37-match unbeaten run, but they have no room for inconsistency in their qualifying group.
In Group C, they will face England again, plus Ukraine, North Macedonia and Malta, beginning with arguably the tie of the group and perhaps the whole qualification - a rematch of the Euro 2020 final against England, to be played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Thursday.
Their Matchday 2 fixture is against Malta, but they can’t risk losing to England at home and be playing catch-up against the likes of Ukraine, while they know all too well how tough North Macedonia can make life for them.
The Italians are guaranteed a play-off place thanks to their Nations League performance, but they won’t want to rely on that after last year’s nightmare.
Leonardo Bonucci provides leadership, Gigi Donnarumma is one of the world’s safest pairs of hands, but as usual, the question mark over Italy is where the goals will come from. Ciro Immobile’s injury means Nicolo Barella on eight is the highest scorer in the squad, while uncapped forward Mateo Retegui - on loan at Tigre from Boca Juniors - is an interesting inclusion.
Georgia
Anyone who has paid even the slightest bit of attention to Serie A or the Champions League this season will understand why Georgia’s upcoming fixtures are grabbing some attention.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s performances for Napoli this season have been nothing short of outstanding, where he has registered 14 goals, 16 assists, and mesmerised countless defenders.
Georgia have never qualified for a major tournament as an independent nation, coming closest in Euro 2020 qualifying, in which they lost a play-off final.
They could now join the list of nations who have broken their tournament duck once a sprinkling of stardust has come along, so it will be interesting to see how they, and Kvaratskhelia, deal with the extra pressure.
Khvicha has ten goals from his 19 caps, so he has certainly thus far delivered on the international stage, at least when the spotlight wasn’t on him.
Georgia won their Nations League group last year, which will take some weight off Kvataskhelia’s shoulders, if there is any. In fact, Georgia only lost once in 2022; in a pre-World Cup friendly versus eventual semi-finalists Morocco.
5-2 and 3-0 away wins in Bulgaria and North Macedonia, respectively, shows the Crusaders are moving in the right direction under two-time Confederations Cup winner, Willy Sagnol.
They begin with a friendly against Mongolia - which as far as friendlies go is quite a cool one - before beginning their Group A campaign against Norway. Spain should win the group, with Scotland and Cyprus in Georgia’s sights.
Norway
Georgia vs Norway in Batumi on 28th March would have piqued few people’s interests outside the respective countries a year or two ago, but now it is one of March’s most eagerly-anticipated fixtures.
Anticipated, because, like the Georgians, it is the individuals playing for historically less-fancied Norway who are expected to propel the team forwards.
In Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, Norway have a striker who seems to be in the process of destroying every record going, plus a midfielder who is developing into one of this generation’s very best.
Norway are very much “golden generation or bust” - their first great team took bronze at the 1936 Olympics and were unfortunate to draw Italy in the first round of the 1938 World Cup.
They then didn’t qualify for anything again until the next batch of talent emerged, making it to the World Cups of 1994 and 1998, plus Euro 2000, but they haven’t been seen at a top table since.
In Haaland and Odegaard, plus Josh King, Mohamed Elyounoussi and Alexander Sorloth, the third generation of qualifiers looks like it is here to ease the pain of the long-suffering Norwegian fans.
Norway have an away trip to Malaga before the long one to Batumi and unlike both this month’s opponents and Scotland, they don’t have a play-off place to fall back on.
Before their stars return to fight it out for the Premier League title, their chances of ending 23 years of hurt could be well-enhanced or rather damaged.
Kazakhstan
A left-field, or furthest-Eastern-field, selection are the Hawks of Kazakhstan.
They have been participating in UEFA qualification since the 2006 World Cup qualifiers after making the switch from the AFC and have regularly been whipping boys in their groups.
Kazakhstan picked up three wins in their Euro 2020 qualifying group - their best yet - though two of those wins were against San Marino (the other, to be fair, was against Scotland). Zero wins in their 2022 World Cup campaign suggested things were back to normal.
However, things were brighter in 2022, as they won their Nations League C group, even doing the double over Slovakia, and thus nabbing a play-off place for Euro 2024.
Could that have been a case of new-manager bounce, as Magomed Adiyev had taken the hot seat a month before the Nations League began? Or, is the former Anzhi Makhachkala manager, who took Shakhter Karagandy to the UEFA Conference League play-offs last season, building something in Nur-Sultan?
They face Denmark this month, who should win the group at a canter despite their World Cup disappointment, but first face Slovenia.
Neither Slovenia nor Finland, Northern Ireland or San Marino, who make up Group H, should strike much fear into Kazakh hearts. Moreover, surely none of them were happy at the prospect of a trip to Kazakhstan?
Other than two players plying their trade in Russia, the squad is entirely home-based. Astana’s Abat Aymbetov was their top scorer in the Nations League, while midfielder Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov, of CSKA Moscow, has ten goals from 26 caps.
Serbia
Serbia have an odd relationship with the European Championship, in that they seem to pretend it doesn’t exist.
They have participated at three out of four World Cups as an independent nation and two more as part of FR Yugoslavia/Serbia & Montenegro since the break-up of Yugoslavia, yet they have never played at a Euros as Serbia.
Since Yugoslavia were banned from Euro 92 and replaced by eventual-winners Denmark, a Euro 2000 quarter-final run was the only Serbian involvement in the tournament.
Surely, that run must end at some point? With added local spice to their group, there may be extra incentive for them to finally appear as Serbia at the European showpiece.
They will be alongside neighbours Hungary, Montenegro and Bulgaria in Group G, with pot 5’s Lithuania the only outlier.
Starting at home to Lithuania should set them up nicely for the short trip to Montenegro next week, for which they will also be favourites, putting them in the driving seat.
Hungary will provide a very tough test, yet, with two automatic places available, a positive March would lower the pressure on the matches with the Magyars.
Despite the World Cup group stage exit, they have stuck with manager Dragan Stojkovic who in turn has largely remained faithful to the squad from Qatar, with a strike force of Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Vlahovic and Luka Jovic strong enough to frighten any defence in the world.
(All photos: Wikimedia Commons)