FIFA's new fancy unfairly dumped out by old flame
2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers: Drama aplenty around the world as India eliminated by Qatar through goal which should never have stood.
Today, the 2024 UEFA European Championship kicks off in Munich as the host nation takes on Scotland in what looks sure to be the last Euros or World Cup to take place in solely one nation for a decade.
To capitalise on the event, I thought it wise to write about what has been going on on three completely different continents, namely in the qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Nothing quite like a good curveball.
CAF, the AFC and CONCACAF have all benefitted from World Cup expansion, with an absolute maximum of 10, nine and eight qualifiers each, respectively. In Africa, that has galvanised some of the traditionally smaller sides; in North and Central America and the Caribbean, the absence of the big boys is making for a fascinating competition and - sadly for FIFA - in Asia, things are looking rather ordinary, as one of their hopes for the future has already been eliminated.
Crazy goal crushes India’s and FIFA’s dreams
It is no secret that tapping into the Indian market and milking it for all it is worth has been one of FIFA’s main aims for a long time. The cricket-mad, but increasingly football-interested, country of nearly 1.5 billion people has had FIFA dreaming like a middle-class British girl planning a gap year.
The 2017 men’s and 2022 women’s under-17 World Cups were both hosted in India in order to drum up interest in the game, the latter still going ahead despite the All India Football Federation being suspended in 2022 for third-party interference. But nothing would compare to The Blue Tigers qualifying for a World Cup, or at least, qualify for a World Cup and actually participate - India’s decision not to travel to Brazil 1950 was a sliding doors moment in the country’s football history, and probably keeps Gianni Infantino awake at night.
Currently ranked 121st in the world and 22nd in Asia, an increase to eight direct qualifiers from AFC with one play-off place available did not exactly put India odds-on to qualify, but nonetheless the ultimate aim had become more manageable. They were certainly aiming to be one of 18 sides making it through to Round 3.
Drawn in Round 2 Group A alongside Qatar, Kuwait and Afghanistan, optimism surged when they began with an away win against Kuwait, the team expected to be their direct rivals for second place.
From then on, the optimism waned and waned. A disappointing yet expectable 3-0 loss to Qatar was followed by a disastrous one point from two games against Afghanistan, including a 2-1 loss at home in Guwahati. A 0-0 home draw with Kuwait meant India were clinging on to second place, a point clear of the Kuwaitis, ahead of the final matchday which would see them face the already-qualified Qatar.
Lallianzuala Chhangte’s goal in Doha put them on course, only for Igor Štimac’s men to be robbed of their advantage. A free-kick was swung to the back post and met by the head of Youssef Ayman, whose effort was saved by Gurpreet Singh Sandhu and the ball rolled out of play. However, Al Hashmi Al Hussain hooked the ball back into the six-yard box, and Ayman tapped the ball into the net.
Neither the referee nor his assistant spotted the ball go out of play, and the goal stood. Critically, there was no VAR in place to overturn the decisions, leaving the fervent Indian protests to fall on deaf ears.
Rocked by that goal, India conceded again soon after to Ahmed Al-Rawi and Qatar took a 2-1 victory. Elsewhere, Kuwait beat Afghanistan 1-0 to seal second place and progress, knocking India out with only one win from six matches.
The equalising goal will be remembered for ending India’s dreams, yet - like Denis Law’s goal against Manchester United in 1974 - that is not strictly the case, as a point still would not have been enough for The Blue Tigers. Yet, had the goal been correctly disallowed, would India have conceded later to Al-Rawi?
The great irony is that India, whose improvement on the global stage will bring riches to FIFA, were eliminated by the team that FIFA has been courting for the best part of a decade and a half. The governing body’s efforts to make Qatari football competitive before the 2022 World Cup - with the endless shadiness around it - has come back to bite.
Elsewhere in AFC
There were not too many surprises elsewhere in Round 2, yet the third round is shaping up to be fascinating.
Japan and Australia were two of the three teams to record six wins from six, with aggregate scores of 24-0 and 22-0 respectively. Fellow regular qualifiers South Korea and Iran joined Qatar in going unbeaten.
1986 participants Iraq were the only other team to secure 18 points, as they topped Group F ahead of Indonesia, who got the better of Vietnam - the only side from the 12-team Third Round in 2022 qualifying not to make it as far this time around.
Jordan topped Group D ahead of Saudi Arabia on goal difference after beating their neighbours away from home on the final matchday, while only goal difference could separate Iran and unbeaten Uzbekistan.
North Korea, Oman, China, Kyrgyzstan, Palestine, UAE and Bahrain also going through means 11 former qualifiers and seven potential debutants make up the 18 still in contention.
Nigeria making a meal of it as underdogs prevail
When the UEFA European Championship was increased to 24 teams for the 2016 edition, some of the usual also-rans seemed to release themselves from the shackles, with new-found belief in their hopes of qualification.
Austria and Northern Ireland topped their qualifying groups, while Wales, Iceland and Albania leapt from usual fourth or fifth place finishes to qualify automatically in second. New or different teams were always likely to qualify with the extended format, but they were meant to sneak through the play-offs, not qualify in style.
Something similar seems to be happening in Africa where, 40% of the way through qualification, there are some very unfamiliar faces topping the groups.
A 2-0 win over whipping boys Chad means Comoros are back on track after defeat to Madagascar. The islanders lead Group I on goal difference ahead of the mighty Ghana, whom they beat 1-0 on matchday two.
In Group B, it’s Sudan who lead the way with 10 points after two away wins this month. They are two clear of Senegal, who they are yet to play, although a 1-0 win over third-placed DR Congo will give them confidence of going toe-to-toe with the Lions of Teranga.
Perhaps the most intriguing group is Group C, where not only Rwanda lead the way on goal difference ahead of South Africa and Benin, but Nigeria sit fifth!
The (not-so) Super Eagles began with a poor 1-1 home draw with Lesotho on matchday one, before Zimbabwe held them to the same score. Over the June international window, they drew 1-1 for a third time in a row, this time against South Africa, before a 2-1 defeat to Benin at the weekend.
Raphael Onyedika put Nigeria ahead, only for Jodel Dossou and Steve Mounié to respond for The Squirrels before half-time to secure a first ever win over The Super Eagles, and once again Nigeria’s failure to score more than once per match cost them.
The finalists of this winter’s Africa Cup of Nations therefore have just three points to their name, sitting one place and one point ahead of last-placed Zimbabwe. The top three - on seven points each - all taking points off each other means there is still a chance to turn things around, but pressure is already mounting on new head coach Finidi George, and next up it’s Rwanda away.
If you will allow me to draw another parallel with Euro 2016, the Netherlands failed to qualify, despite the expansion. Maybe a supposed easier qualifying system means big teams take their foot off the gas, maybe former giants are coincidentally going through dark day, or maybe it’s just an “N” thing?
Only the top side in each of the nine groups qualifies for the World Cup, with just the four-best third-placed teams going into the play-offs.
Sitting in those four sacred places at present along with Ghana are three more unlikely contenders; Gabon, Mozambique and Namibia.
Big guns Egypt, Cameroon, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Algeria and Tunisia are all having a happier time atop their respective groups, with Senegal just outside those all-important play-off spots. Recent nearly men Mali, Burkina Faso join DR Congo as sides not making the most of the extra places on offer so far.
Spare a thought for Equatorial Guinea, whose opening two wins over Namibia and Liberia have now been awarded as 3-0 victories for their opponents, as FIFA ruled that striker Emilio Nsue was never eligible to play for the country.
Nsue had score both goals in what were 1-0 wins before FIFA’s decision. That, coupled with a 1-0 loss to Tunisia and 1-0 win over Malawi means they have gone from first place with six points after two matches, to fifth place with three points after four fixtures, no star man, and next to no hope of making a maiden finals.
Round 2 in CONCACAF underway
CONCACAF began sorting the wheat from the chaff last week, as Round 2 began with minimal upsets.
Nine of the 30 teams participating at this stage began their campaign with two wins from two, including the likes of Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama, who are all looking to profit from the absence of the three 2026 host nations in this qualification process.
None have picked up six points more impressively, though, than potential debutants Guatemala, who registered 6-0 and 3-0 wins over Dominica and the British Virgin Islands, respectively. Jamaica also won both their games in the same group, beating Dominica and the Dominican Republic by just one goal apiece, as the Reggae Boyz rotated their squad ahead of the Copa America.
Curaçao are off to an ideal start with wins over Barbados and Aruba as they aim for a maiden finals, while El Salvador’s failure to beat Puerto Rico means Suriname are the unlikely early leaders of Group F after strolling past St Vincent and the Grenadines and Anguilla. Strolling past the knee-length locks of Anguilla’s Aedan Scipio is easier said than done, however!
Photo: @terryfinisterre / X.com
Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who writes for Flashscore and World Soccer Magazine.