Euro 2024 Round of 16: Who will produce the shock?

My preview and predictions ahead of the eight Round of 16 matches at UEFA Euro 2024

No more scraping through with zero wins from three matches, no more endless permutations and counting how many yellow cards the kit man got, it is win-or-go-home time at the 2024 UEFA European Championship.

After a painful 48 hours with no football, the Round of 16 begins today, so it is high time I gave you my predictions for the eight matches.

I said previously that I would predict the whole of the knockout stage, but I do not see the point in predicting matches that might not take place, so I will take things round by round instead. However, read to the end of the article where I kind of give you my winner of the tournament!

Switzerland vs Italy

Match by match, I have become less and less impressed by Italy; I loved how they controlled the game against Albania before being totally dominated by Spain and needing a 98th-minute equaliser to squeeze a draw from a poor Croatia side.

In the Euros, the start of the knockout stages can feel like a reset button for teams who have stumbled through the groups, but Italy have to go again without Riccardo Calafiori, who has a yellow card suspension. The breakout star centre back’s absence will leave a big hole for Switzerland to exploit.

Be it Kwadwo Duah, Xherdan Shaqiri or Dan Ndoye, Switzerland seem to be able to rely on a different attacking option each match, and I expect the same to be true later today in Berlin, while I cannot say the same for Italian strikers. Switzerland win 1-0.

Germany vs Denmark

The highest scoring team in the group stage taking on a team yet to register a win - on paper this looks like a clear win for the host nation. But Denmark are here simply because they are hard to beat, and I expect them to knuckle down and stifle the German attack.

That will be tough without their impressive defensive midfielder Morten Hjulmand who is suspended, but Germany’s back line is looking a little shaky too, with Jonathan Tah suspended and Antonio Rüdiger a doubt with a calf problem giving the Danish attack cause for optimism.

This one will come down to who has the better attack to take advantage of the opponents’ weaknesses. For me, that’s Germany, but this won’t be plain sailing. Germany win 2-1 (after extra time).

England vs Slovakia

Another team who are hoping the Round of 16 provides a fresh start is Gareth Southgate’s England, who topped their group unbeaten despite playing to their potential for about 20 minutes in total.

Despite not looking like their old selves, they have managed to pull off their usual trick of avoiding the big names in the early knockout rounds, though Slovakia have proven already that they know how to cause an upset.

Cole Palmer, Anthony Gordon and Kobbie Mainoo should all be given an opportunity, in my opinion, but I doubt that Southgate has it in him to drop at least one of his misfiring superstars. Instead, England will grab a goal and bore us all again. England win 1-0.

Spain vs Georgia

We have seen before that the most impressive team from the group stage suddenly implodes when the knockout matches begin, though it would be the mother of all implosions if Georgia - four days after going all out to beat Portugal - manage to beat Spain, after the Spanish rested pretty much the whole first XI against Albania.

The fresh legs of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal should be too much to contain for Georgia, whose only hope is that Spain suffer a huge loss of momentum following their squad rotation. Spain win 3-0.

France vs Belgium

Two sides showing what can happen when, unlike England, you slip to second in the group when not at your best.

Somehow, these teams have scored a grand total of just four goals between them, with a Frenchman yet to score in open play while Romelu Lukaku leads the VAR Golden Boot (TM) race.

This match will come down to whose attack clicks into gear first, and despite not having a competitive head-to-head win in over 40 years, I think it might just be Belgium who pulls it off. France have a high XG at this tournament, so though they are creating chances, they aren’t taking them, while Belgium have simply been unlucky at times. That Belgian luck will change on Monday in Düsseldorf. Belgium win 2-1.

Portugal vs Slovenia

I always thought this Portugal team had an implosion in them, and as I mentioned in Euro Cortado the other day, there was no better time to have it than against Georgia, when already through.

Unfortunately for Slovenia, I expect a backlash from Roberto Martínez’s men, but Slovenia - unbeaten at this tournament and victors over Portugal in March - will make life tough for Os Navegadores. But with Andraž Šporar misfiring and Benjamin Šeško barely getting a chance, I don’t think a shock is on the cards this time. Portugal win 2-0.

Romania vs Netherlands

I don’t believe even the most biased Romania fan had them topping their group, though I’m sure they feel hard done by with not exactly a favourable draw.

After blitzing Ukraine, the goals have really dried up for Romania, though they did cause Belgium some real problems, as Koen Casteels came to the Red Devils’ rescue more than once.

They have not won since their opening match, but with Cody Gakpo staying in form and Memphis Depay getting off the mark against Austria, the Dutch might have just enough to compensate for their out-of-character defence. Netherlands win 3-2 (after extra time).

Austria vs Turkey

Winners of Group D and improving as the tournament has gone on, it has been a great Euros so far for Austria, who play as a team with quality greater than the sum of its parts under Ralf Rangnick.

In Group F, Turkey qualified with six points, the same number as Austria managed in Group D. However, I don’t have the same faith in Vincenzo Montella to get his team selection correct that I have in Rangnick. That, coupled with Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Samet Akaydin missing through suspension, means I cannot see past Austria here. Austria win 3-1.

Quarter-finals

If I am right, which I probably won’t be, then this will be our UEFA Euro 2024 quarter-final line-up:

Spain vs Germany
Portugal vs Belgium
Netherlands vs Austria
England vs Switzerland

The winner?

When I went through all the simulators and predictors at the start of the tournament, I had Spain vs Germany meeting in the quarter-finals, and said the winner of that match will go on to win the tournament. With that match still very much a possibility, I see no reason to change that… though I still cannot split them!

I guess I will actually have to put my neck on the line come my quarter-final prediction article, unless of course it’s Georgia vs Denmark!

Let me know your predictions for the Round of 16 and beyond and your thoughts on mine…

Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who writes for Flashscore and World Soccer Magazine.