Euro 2024 Group Stage: Five teams who made me look stupid

Which teams at UEFA Euro 2024 qualified for the Round of 16 after I wrote them off in my previews?

A fortnight of football has eliminated a third of the sides at the UEFA European Championship ahead of the knockout rounds which begin tomorrow.

Of the 16 left in the race, I predicted 11 of them to reach this stage in my two group stage prediction articles.

That’s not bad going, but five therefore have made a mockery of my expectations and got further than I expected. So today, I’m looking back on my group stage predictions, focusing on those five teams and seeing where I went wrong!

Romania

I’m sorry Romania, I wasn’t familiar with your game.

Romania were unbeaten in qualifying, albeit not in a strong group, and lack of goals is a worry.

Owing to that lack of goals, I had Romania down to exit Euro 2024 without a point, yet they ripped up the script with three in their opening match against Ukraine with some of the most scintillating attacking football of the group stage.

Not only did they pick up plenty of points, they topped Group E and will now provide the Netherlands with a tricky test in the Round of 16 on Tuesday.

They only scored one penalty in their next two matches, so maybe they used up all their goal reserves against the Ukrainians, but in proving they had some, they turned a group I thought would come down to whoever got the biggest win over Romania, to a group where Romania getting the biggest win sees them top it.

Elsewhere in Group E, I had higher hopes for Ukraine, who become the first side in this Euros format to be eliminated with four points, while I predicted Belgium and Slovakia to both go through on five points, rather than four.

Switzerland

How many times do Switzerland have to make it through a group stage before we take them seriously? They have done it again despite no one ever putting them among the dark horse debate.

I basically said as much in my prediction, before discounting them for similar reasons to Romania;

Expecting Switzerland matches to be drab is hack these days, and their performance at Euro 2020 proved they can entertain. But an underwhelming qualifying campaign and a lack of goals suggests they have reverted to perceived type.

I had them down to get just two points and while I correctly guessed that they would draw with both Scotland and Germany, I did not expect them to begin by dashing the hopes of the much-fancied Hungarians on the opening weekend.

Michel Aebischer has become a keen member of the side who has been rewarded for giving a chance to Kwadwo Duah, the striker plucked from the Bulgarian league, while Breel Embolo and Xherdan Shaqiri and still turning up and doing the business at major tournaments.

Despite that, come 2026 I am sure I will predict a group stage exit only for Shaqiri to score a bicycle kick from 35 yards to send them into the Round of 32 with a match to spare.

As for the other sides in Group A, I was spot on with Scotland’s only point coming against the Swiss, and with Germany topping the group with seven, albeit the draw coming against Hungary, whose hype train I was firmly on.

Slovenia

I had Slovenia finishing fifth among the third-ranked teams, in reality they were fourth best, so despite being one place out for their position in the entire group stage, it was the most crucial place, as they march on by the skin of their teeth.

Where I was really wrong about Slovenia, though, was how I expected them to be overly-reliant on Jan Oblak and Benjamin Šeško, and while the former was a reliable presence in goal, Šeško is yet to score in the tournament, as Slovenia have instead played as an organised unit, grinding out results with both their goals so far coming from defenders.

I predicted them to beat Denmark, which in reality ended 1-1, but then for things to turn sour;

Serbia should have too much, just.

Slovenia will have to hope they don’t concede too many to England, as their negative goal difference could be their undoing.

Only a 95th-minute equaliser prevented a famous win over Serbia, before they picked up their third draw of Group C against England. As for conceding too many against the English, they rarely looked like conceding one.

They now have nothing to lose in their first knockout match as an independent nation against Portugal on Monday.

Denmark

I’m sorry to have to stay in Group C, everyone’s least favourite, as I was miles off with my expectations of Denmark, too.

I did not see where the squad - largely unchanged and only getting older - that failed in Qatar were going to improve;

For me, Denmark are not the same side they were three years ago

Finishing ahead of Slovenia on their coaching staff’s disciplinary record, better qualifying record, price of a slice of carrot cake in Copenhagen, or whatever it was, Denmark were runners-up in the group, also with three draws.

Again, not spectacularly different from the two points I expected them to get, but with one of were those points secured in fairy tale fashion by one of the old guard, Christian Eriksen, and the other scored by one of the new additions since Qatar that I had overlooked, Morten Hjulmand, Denmark proved that they do have plenty to offer.

I expected goals to be the order of the day in Group C, with England and Serbia getting the lion’s share of them. That could not have been more wrong. England limped into first place despite scoring twice, while Serbia showed they could defend, but looked hopeless going forward.

Georgia

Isn’t it great to be wrong sometimes? Never did I imagine that the lowest-ranked side in the competition would still be in Germany come the knockouts.

I had Georgia down to pick up one point, against Turkey, and I saw it as a personal win when they held on for a point against Czechia having come up short to Turkey in their opener.

And this is what I wrote ahead of Georgia’s final match of Group F, up against Portugal;

Portugal are my tip to be the highest scorers after the group stage; once they have really got going against Turkey, they will roll over the plucky Georgians who by this stage will be running on empty.

Well, they showed me! Portugal rotated the team but still had plenty of star power on display, yet a 2-0 win for Georgia proved Willy Sagnol’s side still had plenty left in the tank!

Georgia left me smiling behind the egg on my face as we witnessed one of the greatest upsets in European Championship history, which has set up a Round of 16 tie with Spain, probably the team of the tournament so far who cannot afford to take notice of the team from the Caucasus lightly.

Elsewhere in Group A, I was right in saying Turkey and Portugal would also make it through, with the Czechs going home. In Group D, I got the three qualifiers correct, only getting France and Austria the wrong way round, while in Group B I expected Croatia to make it through alongside Spain and Italy. So not all completely dreadful!

What were your best and worst predictions from the group stage? Leave me a comment below, we won’t laugh too hard at the bad ones!

Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who writes for Flashscore and World Soccer Magazine.