Beware the "Greats in Qualifying"

Ahead of UEFA Euro 2024, how much attention should we pay to teams' qualifying records when making our tournament dark horse predictions?

Second place in Group H; seven wins, two draws and one loss from 10 matches; a 2-0 home win and a 1-1 draw away to France; not a single home goal conceded.

The kind of formidable record in qualifying that would provide justification for predicting a team to go on a great run at a major tournament and reach the business end of a finals.

That record, however, belongs to Turkey in UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying. While it was not the sole reason for every man and his dog selecting them as their dark horses for the tournament, it certainly was a major factor.

I’m sure you don’t need reminding (especially if, like me, you tipped Ay-Yıldızlılar to upset a few people) that Turkey crashed and burned, losing all three matches by an aggregate score of 8-1.

Two years on, Denmark became the first UEFA nation to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, winning their first nine matches and only losing on the final matchday when already home and dry.

“They were brilliant in qualifying!” we all declared as we placed our “to reach the semi-finals” bets. A 0-0 draw with Tunisia first up was as good as it got for the Danes, before defeats to France and Australia meant an early flight home.

On the flipside, Brazil lost six of their 18 matches in qualification for the 2002 FIFA World Cup, including 3-1 to Bolivia and 3-0 against last-placed Chile. A win on the final day over Venezuela secured their place in Japan and South Korea automatically and their record of reaching every finals was maintained, but only just.

What followed was one of the most dominant performances ever seen at a World Cup finals. Brazil were a cut above every one of the lesser 31 teams, winning every match at a canter as Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho could not be contained.

So, as we prepare our predictions and work out our projected paths and permutations for Germany 2024, is it all a matter of ignore all that has come before, discounting records in qualification?

Well, Italy’s 10 wins from 10 ahead of Euro 2020 suggests not. Neither does Argentina’s unbeaten record in the CONMEBOL system pre-Qatar 2022.

That being said, the “they were great in qualifying” declarations don’t usually apply to potential winners. It is a given that “Yer Argentinas, yer Italys, yer Englands, yer Spains” will walk the qualification process, and they would only become noteworthy should they stutter somewhat or be reduced to qualifying through a play-off.

Furthermore, Italy were not just in great form in qualifying, they went on the longest unbeaten run in international football history. They were not just great in qualifying, but great full stop, only for their streak to be hurriedly overtaken by Argentina who, despite the infamous Saudi incident, looked destined to find gold in the desert.

It’s those dark horses, those unlikely semi-finalists, those “you know what, they’ve actually got some players, you know?” teams who get judged by their qualifying record.

Who does that apply to in 2024, and how much should we read into a run of form put together a year or so ago, much of it against teams who (by the nature of how qualifying works) are not good enough to be there this summer?

Here is my guide to some of the teams who performed well in qualification, and whether or not they will do the same in Germany.

Scotland

A Scott McTominay double against Spain really kick-started a glorious campaign for Steve Clarke’s men, who only lost one match (the away fixture against the Spanish) to finish six points clear of star-studded Norway.

Since a win against Cyprus, they have been in woeful form; after the Spain defeat they drew their final two qualifiers against Norway and Georgia, amongst friendly losses to England and France. In March, they were thrashed 4-0 by the Netherlands before a 1-0 defeat to Northern Ireland, as the wheels well and truly came off the tartan bandwagon.

Perhaps the toughest possible opening match against the hosts is exactly what they don’t want right now. Should they fail to spring a surprise, they will need plenty of points against always-tough-to-beat Switzerland and another fancied side, Hungary.

Dark horse potential: NO

Hungary

As I’ve just mentioned them, let’s stay in Group A. Hungary reached Germany after finishing unbeaten in qualifying Group G, twice beating runners-up Serbia and finishing well clear of Montenegro, Lithuania and Bulgaria.

Not exactly the toughest group, but they are now unbeaten since a UEFA Nations League loss to Italy in September 2022, as part of a group of death in which they excelled, particularly against England and Germany.

Two wins in March means Marco Rossi’s men are now 14 matches unbeaten, and while they probably will not win the trophy, long runs without defeat are very much the modern formula for tournament success. Second in the group sets them up with the winner of Group B - the group of death - but winning the group or even finishing third could give them a more favourable passage.

Dark horse potential: YES

Albania

Albania reached their second European Championship after Czech Republic, Poland, Moldova and the Faroe Islands all left Tirana without scoring a goal. Only Poland could get the better of Kuqezinjtë on home soil.

Sylvinho coaches a team filled with top-five league experience, captained by Europa League winner Berat Djimsiti, but luck was not on their side, as they were drawn into Group B with Spain, Italy and Croatia.

They should put up a decent fight and it would not surprise me if they picked up at least a point, but getting enough to make it through should be beyond them.

Dark horse potential: NO

Turkey

Are Turkey the Turkey of 2024? Having suffered at their hands three years ago, many people are understandably steering well clear of them this summer.

They topped a group featuring Croatia and Wales, losing only once in the process and are another of the many teams at this Euros succeeding under an Italian manager - Vincenzo Montella in their case. In November, they even took a 3-2 win over Germany in Berlin.

In March, though, their form took a nosedive; they lost 1-0 to Hungary before a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Austria. If that was only a blip, they will have to prove it in June against Italy and Poland before the tournament starts. They face regular Euros performers Portugal and Czech Republic in their group as well as debutants Georgia, where finishing second will likely set up a meeting with France or the Netherlands.

Dark horse potential: NO (but they will do better than last time)

Austria

The 6-1 win over the Turks would have made many look up and take notice of Austria, had they not been keeping a keen eye on Ralf Rangnick’s men already. They were arguably the best of all the runners-up in qualifying, finishing on 19 points from just 10 matches.

They have won five in a row since their only defeat on the road to Germany, against Belgium, which included a 2-0 success over their German neighbours in Vienna in November.

Austria are in a tough group with France, Netherlands and Poland, but they will be feared by all three opponents, as Rangnick’s style continues to impress. They might need some good fortune along the way, but they have what it takes to go deep.

Dark horse potential: YES

Romania

Romania did well to come through qualifying without defeat, though perhaps not in the toughest group. They probably will not have enough firepower to make it through a group featuring Belgium and Ukraine.

A result against Ukraine in their opener could put them on the right path, but poor results in March have done little to inspire.

Dark horse potential: NO