A format suggestion for the 2026 World Cup: Embrace the wackiness

A radical new format proposal for 48-team World Cups I first published in 2021 when FIFA were pedalling their three-team groups idea that stank of collusion

Ever willing to be greedy… sorry… ever willing to extend the beautiful game to more corners of the globe (#footballunitestheworld), FIFA decided the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico would be the appropriate time to expand the tournament from 32 teams to 48.

Whilst I have always been in favour of expansion - even 48 teams doesn’t cover a quarter of FIFA members - the 32-team format in use since 1998 is the perfect one, it’s hard to deny.

Hard to deny, unless you’re FIFA, who barely gave the concept any thought. There was no official word for a long time on the format, before eventually they chucked out a half-baked idea based on groups of three where the top two went through; it was ideal for anyone planning the Disgrace of Gijon 2.0.

After a backlash and a coming to the senses, they had a re-think and decided to go back to groups of four, with the top two plus the eight-best third-place teams joining them in the Round of 32.

It is essentially the format from 1986 to 1994, but with 100% inflation. The final will be played on 19th July, but the start date is still to be confirmed, probably as they come to terms with organising a group stage which will be long… very long.

If we get a group stage half as good as in Qatar then we have nothing to worry about, but a bucket-load of dead rubbers is a distinct possibility, as is the loss of interest among more casual fans.

I wrote a 48-team proposal of my own back in 2021, when FIFA were still oblivious to the problems of their original idea. It has drama from the off, no dead rubbers, brand new rounds and more jeopardy than our little hearts can take.

I’d like to thrash it out again for you now. Brace yourselves, it’s fairly radical, but stay with me.

Let’s start with Round 1

The 48 qualifiers are split into four pots based on world rankings and/or confederation, with the strongest seeds in Pot 1 and the lowest in Pot 4.

The Round 1 draw then takes place to determine 24 one-legged ties. Pot 1 teams will be drawn against Pot 4, and 2 against 3. Utilising a weekend, it would be possible to play all 24 matches within a six day period. Matches ending in a draw after 90 minutes will be decided by a penalty shootout and the winners will advance to the Group Stage.

“But you can’t expect teams and their fans to travel to a World Cup for one match!” I hear you cry. Well, whoever said they were “knockout” matches?

The Eliminator

The 24 losing sides from Round 1 will enter the Elimination Round, where they have 90 minutes (plus potential penalties) to keep their dreams alive. Defeat in this round, as its name suggests, will mean an early exit. The winners head to the group stage. These 12 matches will immediately follow Round 1 and can be played over just three days.

The beauty of these opening rounds is that every team is guaranteed a minimum of two matches (the same as FIFA’s original 2026 plan), but with only 12 teams eliminated, rather than 16, and absolutely zero chance of a dead rubber. A few shocks will see some of the bigger names under threat or even eliminated early on and with no team wanting to chance their hand in the Elimination Round, drama will be on display from the very first match of Round 1.

Pairings to make travel easier

Round 1 matches can also be “paired”: each Pot 1 v Pot 4 game will be paired with a Pot 2 v Pot 3 fixture and both will be played at the same venue. The losers of these pairs will then meet in the Elimination Round, also at the same venue, making the logistics and travel easier for teams and fans alike.

On to the groups…

The Group Stage then begins for the remaining 36 teams, who will be split into 12 groups of 3. The 12 group winners and the four best runners-up will advance to the Round of 16. This format ensures that collusion will not be possible as teams finishing second will not be guaranteed to advance, and dead rubbers are unlikely as even if two teams are on 0 points going into the final group match, a win can (in most cases) put them back into contention for qualification.

The Group Stage path will also be pre-determined when the Round 1 draw takes place, again to avoid logistical issues.

Familiar knockout system

The knockout stages proceed as they have done for generations with the Round of 16, Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals, Third Place Playoff and Final. Unlike the early rounds, these matches, if drawn, will have extra time before penalties.

The numbers game

This does create a mammoth 112 matches, not far off double the 32-team format total, however, it is only eight more than FIFA’s plan for 2026. The minimum number of matches played by teams finishing 1st-4th remains at seven, with a maximum of eight, which is of course based on a team’s Round 1 result. FIFA’s plan is a guaranteed eight for the top four.

While twelve teams will play only twice compared to FIFA’s thrice, 36 teams will play a minimum of three, whereas FIFA’s idea sees 24 teams have three as their maximum. More significantly, every single match will have something riding on it.

So, how many years will this tournament last?

Certainly less than one!

Despite the huge increase in matches, I have calculated that it would be possible to hold the entire tournament within 38 days, only a week longer than Russia 2018.

Round 1: If the tournament began on a Friday (let’s call it Friday 1) three matches could be played with kick-offs separated by three hours. Six matches, each separated by two hours, could be played on Saturday 1 and Sunday 1 respectively, before returning to the three-match schedule for the next three days. All 24 matches within 6 days. Go up to four matches per weekday and five days will be enough, but let’s stick with three for now.

Elimination: With those playing on Friday 1 and Saturday 1 having had sufficient rest, the Elimination Round can begin immediately on Thursday 1 with three matches, three on Friday 2 before six on Saturday 2.

Group Stage: It is imperative that the Group Stage begins straight afterwards, as some teams will have already gone over a week without playing. All Group Stage Matchday One fixtures will feature at least one team that won their Round 1 match. Six games will be played on Sunday 2 before three each on Monday & Tuesday 2. Matchday Two will be played over the following four days (three matches each), before Matchday Three mirrors Matchday Three with six matches on Sunday 3 and three each on Monday 3 and Tuesday 3.

Knockout Rounds: After two rest days (Wed 3 and Thu 3), the Last 16 is played from Friday 4 to Monday 4, either with two matches per day or three each on Saturday and Sunday. Three rest days follow. The Quarter-Finals are played on Friday and Saturday 5, the Semi-Finals on Tuesday and Wednesday 5. The Third-Place Playoff on Saturday 6 and the Final on Sunday 6.

FIFA, if you’re reading, my inbox is always open for consultation!

(All photos and images from Wikimedia Commons)