2024 Copa América Final: Whose run ends?
Previewing the first ever Copa América final between Argentina and Colombia, where one team's long unbeaten run must end
Despite only nine sides ever finishing in the top two of the Copa América in its previous 47 editions and 108 years of history, Argentina and Colombia have never finished in the gold and silver medal positions in the same tournament.
Until now! Hard Rock Stadium in Miami will host what is sure to be an electric atmosphere, with hopefully an electric match to boot, as holders Argentina face the stern test of Colombia on Sunday night.
16 teams began the 2024 Copa América journey, only two remain, so here’s my look at how Argentina and Colombia got this far, and how I think things will pan out.
Argentinian train chugging along
One of the questions in my Copa América preview was whether or not Argentina are still hungry for success, after winning the 2021 edition to end their long major tournament drought and then taking the ultimate prize of a World Cup win in 2022.
In many ways, we are still waiting for that question to be answered. They ran out 2-0 winners after taking time to click into gear against Canada in the opening match, before needing a late winner to beat one of the worst Chile sides in years 1-0.
In their final Group A match, against Peru - Chile’s rival for worst South American team at the moment in terms of form - they produced almost a carbon copy of the Canada match, scoring both early and late in the second half to win 2-0.
Not exactly setting the world alight against three of the middle-ranked nations at the tournament, but how can you fault three wins without a goal conceded?
You can fault a lack of game management, however; when they finally did score a first half goal in the quarter-finals against Ecuador, they failed to see the game out, allowing a 92nd-minute equaliser, which could so easily have been a winner had Ecuador not hit the post from the penalty spot in normal time.
Argentina squeezed through on penalties, no thanks to Lionel Messi’s miss, but Messi finally had a positive impact on the tournament, scoring the second goal in their second 2-0 routine win over Canada in the semi-finals.
They have survived their only scare so far, but tomorrow night will provide by far their sternest test of the tournament, but with a 10-match unbeaten run and only one defeat since that infamous match with Saudi Arabia in 2022, Lionel Scaloni’s men will have faith in themselves.
Colombia believe their time is now
“A 10-match unbeaten run? How cute!” is the line coming out of Bogotá… probably.
That’s because Colombia are on a staggering unbeaten run of their own; their 1-0 win over Uruguay was their 28th match without defeat, one of the longest unbeaten streaks in international football history and pre-dating Néstor Lorenzo’s tenure in charge.
But that is not to say Lorenzo has not had an impact on this team. After all, 25 of the 28 matches have come under him, in which he has built a squad which gets the best out of the experienced players, while also allowing some fresh faces to flourish.
Close to leaving the squad for good after the failed 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign, James Rodríguez now looks reborn in Los Cafeteros’ shirt. With six in five matches, he has already broken the Copa América record for most assists in one tournament.
And you don’t get plenty of assists without plenty of goals! Starting with a 2-1 win over Paraguay, Colombia really hit their stride beating Costa Rica 3-0 before topping the group with a professional 1-1 draw with Brazil.
Panama had bettered the United States to grab a quarter-finals spot, but a potential banana skin was not just avoided, but obliterated, as Colombia ran out 5-0 winners.
Then, in an ill-tempered semi-final, they came through a huge test of character against Uruguay, going down to 10-men in first half stoppage time only minutes after Jefferson Lerma gave them the lead. Despite a barrage of late pressure, they held on to book their place in a first final since 2001.
Often playing second-fiddle to their more southerly rivals on the continent, if this is not the opportunity for Colombia to double their number of Copa titles, then when is?
Who takes the trophy?
That final in 2001 saw Colombia’s only trophy lift to date, when they beat Mexico 1-0 on home soil. Their only other final appearance was in 1975 - the first in the tournament’s history after switching from a round-robin format - when they were defeated by Peru. What is is with Colombia and unique final match-ups?
Argentina, therefore, have history on their side; La Albiceleste are the joint-record winners of the competition, with 15 titles, and have finished as runners-up a further 14 times.
Almost the entire Argentina squad knows what it means to win a final, and many also know what defeat in a final tastes like, after losing the Copa América final in both 2015 and 2016.
Colombia may be on a 28-match run without defeat, but who did they face 29 matches ago? Of course, it was Argentina, beating them 1-0 in February 2022 in World Cup qualifying. This is the first meeting since, with the previous fixture being Argentina’s penalty shoot-out success in the semi-finals of the 2021 Copa. Another psychological edge for the men in blue and white.
Delving into the history books and into the mind suggests this is a match which will be hard to call, as any final should be, particularly between teams not used to defeat.
Daniel Muñoz’s reckless elbowing in the semi-final means Colombia must do without not just a key member of their back line, but one of their best sources of goals; the Crystal Palace man has netted twice and assisted once in the USA, despite just the one international goal before the tournament.
How Colombia will cope with reshuffling their pack against the golden boot leader Lautaro Martínez and a firing-again Messi will be a key area in deciding this final. But as they proved against Uruguay, they will not roll over easily.
That said, I expect Argentina to be more clinical than Uruguay were in midweek and, though their defence will be tested, I think they have enough nous to nullify the potent Colombian attack.
Argentina 1-0 Colombia.
What do you think? Will Argentina win back-to-back Copa América titles for the first time since 1993, or will Colombia’s unbeaten streak hit 29 games? Comment below to let me know, and don’t forget to subscribe to The Full International.
Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who writes for Flashscore and World Soccer Magazine.