Euro 2024 Semi-finals: Can the Have-Nots beat the Haves?
The two semi-finals pit together two very different ways of navigating a major tournament - which will reign supreme?
During the 2024 European Championship, Spain and the Netherlands have entertained, have scored goals, have unleashed young attacking talent, have shown strength in depth, have adapted and improved their playing style and have deserved their places in the Semi-finals.
France and England, on the other hand, have not entertained, have not scored many goals, have not attacked at all at times, have not shown a clear gameplan other than stink the place out and - to my mind - have not deserved their places in the Semi-finals.
Now that we have cleared up who is who (like it wasn’t obvious already), here is my preview of the two matches to decide who will meet in Sunday’s final. Not an easy task at all; after all, Spain have stayed undefeated, England and France have not lost, and the Netherlands have bounced back after their loss.
Spain vs France
The three questions surrounding this fixture since Théo Hernandez struck France’s winning penalty against Portugal have been; are injuries and suspensions going to hamper Spain? Are France going to drag Spain down to their level? And, will we finally see the best of France at these finals?
All three suggest that this is a positive for France, yet to have one of their own players score in open play, lest we forget, against the highest scorers in the competition, ahead of their meeting in Munich tonight.
Let’s take the questions in reverse order. By grinding out results with own goals and shootouts, one could argue we are already seeing the best of France, but if seeing the best of France means marauding forward in scintillating attack, then no, I don’t think so.
The chances of Didier Deschamps reverting from his overly cautious style are pretty much nil, especially with Kylian Mbappé out of sorts as he struggles to play with a broken nose.
That leaves the prospect of France trying to suck the life out of Spain’s game a much greater possibility. No easy feat against the highest scorers in the tournament, but France have only conceded once in these Euros - from the penalty spot against Poland - and kept a clean sheet against the Dutch, who have scored at least twice against all their other opponents.
So how will Spain deal with missing some of their usual starters? La Roja have already proven they have great squad depth after ringing the changes against Albania before the subs won the game against Germany last time out.
Nacho is likely to partner Aymeric Laporte at centre back in place of Robin Le Normand, while 38-year-old Jesús Navas is expected to come in for Dani Carvajal. Two experienced heads who might struggle to contend with a free-flowing French attack… if one existed.
Dani Olmo stepping in for the ever-unfortunate Pedri doesn’t look to be troubling, considering Olmo was arguably Spain’s man of the match against Germany.
Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal and Álvaro Morata all coming off relatively early looked like a mistake by Luis de la Fuente in the Quarter-finals, yet with the trio all better rested than they could have been, it might turn into a real stroke of luck.
For me, it comes down to my belief that whoever was victorious between Spain and Germany would go on to lift the trophy, and my opinion that Spain are more likely to score at least once than France are to finally score a “proper” goal. Spain 1-0 France.
Netherlands vs England
Wednesday’s second semi-final in Dortmund poses many of the same questions as the first, just with different shirt colours.
Will it be England’s turn to try and stop the entertainers’ show, or will The Three Lions finally become the showmen? Or, will the orange train continue to gather pace?
England switched to a back three against Switzerland, with Phil Foden moving into the middle of midfield. While marginal improvements were evident, they still fell behind and Foden did not exactly light up the match.
With Marc Guéhi available again and Luke Shaw proving his fitness, manager Gareth Southgate has decisions to make regarding his defence, though one could argue it will be more of the same from England regardless.
The Dutch have scored five goals in the knockout stages, only Spain have more, and if Cody Gakpo continues to fire, then they should breach the English defence at least once.
The first goal, whomever gets it, should be crucial. England have sat back when taking the lead thus far, while Breel Embolo’s opener for Switzerland at the weekend sparked a response from both the England bench and their starters, as Bukayo Saka scored five minutes later.
The perfect scenario for the Dutch would be to break the deadlock in the 95th minute, not giving England time to respond!
In all seriousness, I expect Ronald Koeman’s side to attack hard from the start, and will want to either kick on or shut up shop to prevent whichever Englishman’s turn it is to have one moment of brilliance to keep them in the tournament.
The Netherlands’ defence contains two of the Premier League’s highest-rated defenders who will know exactly what they are up against, and have put themselves right after an off day against Austria.
I think the Dutch are underrated, but they will be rated come tomorrow night. Netherlands 2-0 England.
So, there we have it, I’m going for a repeat of the 2010 World Cup final in the hope that attack beats defence for once at a major finals.
I had a 50% strike rate for predicting the semi-finalists, am I about to do the same, hit 100% or a big, fat 0%? Let me know your thoughts and give me your two finalists!
Anthony Tomas is a football writer and commentator, who writes for Flashscore and World Soccer Magazine.
Great preview